The conversation does not have to be a performance conversation. In fact it should not be — you don't have enough data for a performance conversation yet. It should be a calibration conversation:

"I've noticed a couple of things this sprint that surprised me — the handoff to design last Tuesday, and the estimate on the migration ticket. I don't have enough context to know whether that's a normal variation or whether something's up. Wanted to ask directly rather than form a theory in my head."

You are not accusing. You are not avoiding. You are stating what you saw and asking what it was.

Two things happen in this conversation roughly 90% of the time. One: there is a thing going on — a personal matter, a frustration with a project, a missing piece of context — and you find out about it. Two: there is nothing going on, and Arjun now knows that you actually notice. The second outcome is, quietly, the more valuable one.

What is true in either case: your skip-level will ask you about Arjun again, and you will have an actual answer instead of a guess.